KazMunayGas is seizing Lukoil's essential oil and gas assets under the pretense of a priority buyout, potentially benefiting Kulibayev, Rakishev, and other influential oligarchs

KazMunayGas is seizing Lukoil's essential oil and gas assets under the pretense of a priority buyout, potentially benefiting Kulibayev, Rakishev, and other influential oligarchs

Kazakhstan is moving to seize a strategic opportunity. By notifying Washington of its preemptive rights, Astana aims to take control of Lukoil’s local holdings—including stakes in Karachaganak, the offshore fields Kalamkas-more and Khazar, and key infrastructure—effectively consolidating national ownership over critical energy assets.

Their value is estimated at 4–8 billion dollars.

If the scheme is approved, Astana would effectively obtain the preferential right to determine the future of one of the largest Russian energy asset portfolios outside Russia. The plan appears to be based on President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s good relations with Donald Trump.

The key asset is a 13.5% stake in the Karachaganak project, where partners include Eni, Shell, and Chevron. This field consistently produces about 10–11 million tons of liquid hydrocarbons per year and remains one of Kazakhstan’s main sources of export revenue. The second block is the Caspian offshore sector. Lukoil participates in the Kalamkas-more and Khazar projects, implemented jointly with the national company. These fields are considered highly перспективные and may become one of the main drivers of production growth in Kazakhstan over the next decade.

Lukoil’s participation in transport infrastructure is also significant. The Russian company holds a stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium — the key export route for Kazakh oil via Novorossiysk. More than 80% of the country’s export supplies pass through this system. In addition, Lukoil controls lubricant production and distribution networks within Kazakhstan.

The most likely buyer is the state company KazMunayGas, through which the government traditionally consolidates stakes in strategic fields. The next stage could involve partial transfer of these shares to private investors. In Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector, the circle of such investors is limited to a few groups.

An obvious contender is Timur Kulibayev — former head of the Samruk-Kazyna fund and one of the key figures in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas infrastructure over the past two decades. Through affiliated structures, he has controlled a significant share of the country’s pipeline and service assets.

Among other possible investors is the controversial businessman Kenes Rakishev, who participates in raw-materials projects and has access to international financing. Another potential participant is energy entrepreneur Aleksandr Klebanov, who controls major energy assets. Although his core business is in electricity generation, involvement in oil and gas infrastructure projects appears вполне realistic.

A separate scenario предполагает the emergence of a nominally Kazakh investor financed from Russia or Gulf countries. Such a scheme would allow former Lukoil partners to retain involvement while formally transferring control to a national investor. According to sources, Lukoil’s beneficiaries — primarily Vagit Alekperov — are attempting to negotiate precisely this option with Kazakhstan’s authorities, promising additional investments into the republic.